Tropical Update: 50% chance of development in the Gulf
June 28
A disturbance in the Bay of Campeche and southwestern Gulf now has a 50% chance of development over the next 2 days. The core of the moisture from this potential system will push west in to Mexico, which means the budding storm only has today and tomorrow to develop before it will weaken over land. Regardless of whether or not this becomes a named system, the greatest impacts will miss us well to the south. We will see an uptick in moisture spreading in to Southeast Texas on Sunday, which will bring our rain chances up to 60% to close out the weekend.
As we move into the work week a plume of Saharan Dust will settle into Southeast Texas, creating hazy skies Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. The dust can also be a lung irritant, so people with asthma or allergies may want to limit time outside.
June 27
Monitoring an area of showers and storms in the northwest Caribbean for potential tropical development. Formation odds are currently 20 percent over the next 7 days as the system moves into the Bay of Campeche.
A plume of Saharan dust is expected to move into the Gulf Coast early next week.
June 26
The Atlantic is quiet once again with no tropical development expected over the next 7 days. That's partly because of a large Saharan dust cloud that will blow into southeast Texas by Monday. Meanwhile, in the Eastern Pacific another storm is threatening to form south of Mexico over the next couple of days.
June 25
Tropical Storm Andrea has dissipated over the middle Atlantic. No other tropical development is expected over the next 7 days.
In the eastern Pacific, conditions are favorable for tropical development southwest of Central America. This storm may further develop into a tropical depression or storm as it tracks northwestward this week.
June 24 9 a.m.
Tropical Storm Andrea has formed in the middle of the Atlantic ocean and brings no threat to land. Andrea should be short lived become a post-tropical remnant low by Wednesday morning.
June 24
Tropical moisture brings an increase in rain chances to southeast Texas this week, no tropical development is expected.
A small area of thunderstorms east of Bermuda has become better organized and is likely to become a short-lived tropical storm later today before the system encounters an unfavorable environment. The system would get the name Andrea.
June 23
As deeper tropical moisture brings increasing rain chances to southeast Texas this week, no tropical development is expected. There is an area that the NHC is monitoring for a high risk for development. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms have formed east of Bermuda. Formation odds around 70% during the next 48 hours. If this system strengthens to a tropical storm, it would get the name Andrea.
In the eastern Pacific, conditions are favorable for tropical development south of Mexico this week.
June 22
Rain chances will climb in Southeast Texas this week as Gulf moisture moves in, but the tropics remain quiet. No tropical development is expected over the next 7 days anywhere in the Atlantic Basin, and it looks increasingly likely we will close out June without any named storms.
June 21
You may notice a bit of a hazy sky today thanks to some Saharan dust that has blown into Southeast Texas. While the dust can be an irritant for those with asthma or allergies, it's also been helping to keep tropical development at bay. So far there have been zero named storms in the Atlantic, and none are expected over the next 7 days.
June 20
Some Saharan dust is expected to move into Southeast Texas. That dust can make for hazy sunsets and sunrises, but can also be a lung irritant for those with asthma or allergies. At this time, the dust will blow overhead on Friday, linger through Saturday, and be gone by Sunday.
In the eastern Pacific, Erick has weakened to a low pressure system and will continue to produce additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches to parts of southwest Mexico. The threat of flooding rains continue. The NHC is also monitoring a new area off the coast of Panama, which has a low risk of development next week. No areas are being monitored in the Atlantic.
June 19 10 a.m. update
Erick made landfall south of Oaxaca, MX Thursday morning. It was downgraded from a Category 4 to a Category 3 storm just before it made landfall; winds of 125 mph. Based on the forecast Erick is expected to rapidly weaken as it moves inland over the mountains of southern Mexico, with the system likely to dissipate by Thursday night or early Friday.
June 19
Hurricane Erick has rapidly intensified into a Category 4 hurricane before landfall in southern Mexico near Acapulco on Thursday. Heavy rainfall, storm surge and damaging winds are expected across southern Mexico. This heavy rainfall can lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in the higher terrain. There will be significant wind and rain impacts in Acapulco. Erick will also bring dangerous waves and rip currents to the Mexican coastline through the weekend.
Otherwise, the Atlantic remains quiet for now.
June 18 7 p.m. update
Hurricane Erick has rapidly intensified into a category 3 hurricane today. It is predicted to make landfall as a major hurricane in southern Mexico Thursday. This would be the first time on record a major hurricane has made landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast in June. Heavy rainfall, storm surge and damaging winds are expected across southern Mexico for the next few days.
June 18
It remains quiet across the Atlantic basin, with no development expected over the next 7 days as Saharan dust continues to move west across the basin.
In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Erick is expected to become a hurricane and could make landfall as a major hurricane, (Category 3) in southern Mexico Thursday. Heavy rainfall, storm surge and damaging winds are
expected across southern Mexico for the next few days.
June 17
No tropical development is expected over the next 7 days in the Atlantic as Saharan dust continues to be draped across the basin.
In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Erick has formed and is spinning just west of Mexico. Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Erick could produce rainfall totals of 5 to
10 inches.
June 16
At this time, the tropics remain quiet as the Atlantic basin is filled with a Saharan dust cloud, limiting tropical development.
In the eastern Pacific, the system that was once Dalila is located to the southwest of Mexico and will continue to move westward away from land and dissipate. Another tropical system could form in the eastern Pacific just west of Costa Rica over the next day or two.
June 15
Things are staying quiet in the Atlantic as Saharan dust remains over the Basin. We continue to monitor Tropical Storm Dalila in the eastern Pacific but it's moving west away from Mexico so it should create little to no impacts for Mexico.
June 14
No tropical development is expected in the Atlantic over the next 7 days. Part of the reason for this is the large plume of Saharan dust spread over the basin. The eastern Pacific remains active though with Tropical Storm Dalila spinning just west of Mexico.
June 13
At this time, the Atlantic basin is filled with a Saharan dust cloud, limiting tropical development. There are signs that something may try to spin up over the Bay of Campeche over the next couple of weeks, but it's too far out to get more specific than that.
There is plenty of activity in the eastern Pacific off the western coast of Mexico.
June 12
No tropical development is expected during the next 7 days as the Atlantic basin is filled with a Saharan dust cloud, limiting any tropical development. There are signs that something may try to spin up over the Bay of Campeche over the next couple of weeks, but it's too far out to get more specific than that.
June 11
No tropical development is expected over the next 7 days in the Atlantic as Saharan dust continues to move west across the basin. In the eastern Pacific, we have one named storm: Tropical Storm Cosme is spinning just west of Mexico. There are also two areas of potential development on the Pacific side... one has a 90% chance of development over the next 7 days.
June 10
No tropical development is expected over the next 7 days in the Atlantic as Saharan dust continues to be draped across the basin. In the eastern Pacific, we have two named storms: Barbara and Cosme spinning just west of Mexico. There is also another area of potential development that now has an 70% chance of development over the next 7 days in this same region of the eastern Pacific.
June 9
No tropical development is expected over the next 7 days in the Atlantic as a large plume of Saharan dust fills much of the basin. There is plenty of activity though in the eastern Pacific with two named storms: Barbara and Cosme spinning just west of Mexico.
June 8
No tropical development is expected during the next 7 days as the Atlantic basin is filled with a Saharan dust cloud, limiting any tropical development. There are signs that something may try to spin up over the Gulf over the next couple of weeks, but it's too far out to get more specific than that.
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Barbara has formed south of Mexico and is forecast to parallel the coast over the next several days. There is also an additional area for a high chance of tropical development southwest of Mexico over the next couple of days. One additional area with a low risk for development later next week south of Mexico.
June 7
The Saharan dust we've been tracking will continue to move out of Southeast Texas this weekend. The Atlantic basin remains quiet for now and tropical development is not expected over the next 7 days.
However, in the Eastern Pacific, three different areas are being monitored off of the coast of Mexico. Two areas are at high risk of developing over the next 48 hours, and one area is considered a low risk for development from June 12-14.
June 6
Some Saharan dust is expected to move into Southeast Texas. That dust can make for hazy sunsets and sunrises, but can also be a lung irritant for those with asthma or allergies. At this time, the dust will blow overhead on Friday, linger through Saturday, and be gone by Sunday.
Another Saharan dust cloud will spread over the Atlantic Basin in the coming days and limit any tropical development. There are signs that something may try to spin up over the Gulf late next week, but it's too far out to get more specific than that.
June 5
Some Saharan dust is expected to move into Southeast Texas Friday and Saturday. That dust can make for hazy sunsets and sunrises, but can also be a lung irritant for those with asthma or allergies. Models have been trending down on the concentration of dust predicted to make it here, so hopefully for most folks it will be a non-issue.
June 4
A non-tropical area of low pressure remains off the coast of the southeastern U.S. and the NHC still has a low probability (10%) for potential development during the next seven days. Regardless of development, periods of heavy rainfall are possible for coastal communities of the Carolinas through Friday.
Monitoring the potential for some Saharan dust to move into Southeast Texas later this week. That dust can make for hazy sunsets and sunrises, but can also be a lung irritant for those with asthma or allergies. Models have been trending down on the concentration of dust predicted to make it here, so hopefully for most folks it will be a non-issue.
June 3
The NHC has highlighted a non-tropical area of low pressure off the coast of the southeastern U.S. for potential development during the next two to three days. The low could gradually develop some subtropical or tropical characteristics later this week while moving northeastward at 10 to 15 mph.
Monitoring the potential for some Saharan dust to move into Southeast Texas by this weekend. That dust can make for hazy sunsets and sunrises, but can also be a lung irritant for those with asthma or allergies. Over the past couple of days models have been trending down on the concentration of dust predicted to make it here, so hopefully for most folks it will be a non-issue.
June 2
Our quiet start to hurricane season looks to continue for at least another week, as the NHC is predicting no tropical development over the next seven days. Over the span of the next two to three weeks the National Hurricane Center is highlighting an area of potential development in the southern gulf and western Caribbean which could eventually produce a tropical cyclone, but it is not an immediate threat and for now it remains just an area we will watch closely.
Of greater interest to us here in Southeast Texas is the potential for some Saharan dust to move in by this weekend. That dusk can make for hazy sunsets and sunrises, but can also be a lung irritant for those with asthma or allergies. Over the past couple of days models have been trending down on the concentration of dust predicted to make it here, so hopefully for most folks it will be a non-issue.
June 1
While the NHC is expecting an active hurricane season (more on that below), we are off to a quiet start on this first day of hurricane season. There are currently no active storms in the Atlantic Basin, nor are any storms expected to develop in the next seven days.
May 29
The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season begins on June 1 and lasts through the end of November.
After a record season for the Gulf Coast in 2024, which included Hurricane Beryl making landfall in southeast Texas, ABC13 Meteorologist Elyse Smith has a preview of what to look out for this year.
Let's start with the El Niño, or La Niña. This hurricane season is more than likely going to be an ENSO neutral year, or a "La Nada." This means the Trade Winds over the Atlantic are in their usual position at normal strength. There's no major influence on jet stream patterns or ocean temperatures like there would be during an El Niño or La Niña. The other top driver will be ocean temperatures, as it is every year. The warmer the water, the higher the likelihood for storms to develop and intensify.
Storm development can depend on the status of the West African Monsoon. That's what sends clusters of thunderstorms to the Atlantic, which can then become a tropical system. What can limit that from happening is Saharan Dust, which usually occurs earlier in the season. So, when it comes to storms that could threaten southeast Texas, local weather patterns and those over the Caribbean can be the final factor. If the jet stream is over the Gulf, there's higher wind shear that can weaken tropical systems.
NOAA's 2025 hurricane prediction is above-normal activity in the Atlantic this year. The outlook for 2025 predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
Researchers with Colorado State University are calling for above normal conditions, calling for 17 tropical storms, with nine of those becoming hurricanes, and four potential major hurricanes.
Another way to preview an upcoming hurricane season is through analog years. These are past years which, based on similar atmospheric conditions, could be comparable to what this season might look like. Dr. Phil Klotzbach with Colorado State University told ABC13 Meteorologist Elyse Smith that these years are 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011, and 2017.
Some of these years will stand out to Texans, and for good reason: 2008 for Hurricane Ike and 2017 for Harvey. However, consider 2006 and 1999, which were very different seasons for the Texas coast. 2006 was a slightly below normal year in terms of the number of storms, and no hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. Tropical storms did hit Florida that year. 2011 was active for the Atlantic and Bay of Campeche, but not necessarily the Gulf.
